In his Q&A show, Pachter Factor, Michael Pachter, an electronics analyst with Wedbush Securities, stated that he predicts the current console cycle to be replaced by 2020.
Asked if he thinks this console generation will last as long as the last, Pachter responded by speculating the possibility that we will have a new console generation by 2019 is likely, however he is certain that there will be replacements for our home consoles by 2020.
“We will have [a new generation] in 2020, so I think 7 years is a lock.” said Pachter.
The main reason for this, according to Pachter, is the increase in affordability and availability for 4K TVs.
“By 2018, if you buy a new TV, it’s more likely to be a 4k TV than a 1080p TV.” said Pachter.
The rise of the 4K TV and it’s ability to penetrate into the homes of general consumers has been much quicker and more effective than the replacement of LCD TVs by LED TVs and as such the result will be a shorter life-cycle for our video game consoles.
“Once everybody has a 4K TV, I think that’s when you get a console cycle where you actually make things in 4K.” said Pachter.
However, he also believes, due to most people seeing the difference between 1080p and 4K as negligible and unnecessary, that the new consoles will need to have an increased focus on functions outside of gaming.
“We’re getting to the point of diminishing returns, so the next gen consoles are going to have to pack in a lot more stuff.” said Pachter. “I think games are going to become less than half of all use.”
When do you think our consoles will be replaced? And what do you think the consoles will look like? Let us know in the comments section below.